Oscar Picks 2009: The deserving and the less so

Every year the list of Oscar nominees is full of obvious, sure choices (Meryl Streep, Sean Penn, Clint Eastwood), a few eyebrow raisers (Crash for Best Picture really? ) and snubs and upsets so frustrating that fans have cried foul and done some snubbing of their own (Jimmy Stewart never winning for Vertigo, Pulp Fiction losing to Forest Gump).

This year’s list was more of the same.

We got Meryl Streep battling it out for Best Actress in Doubt, Sean Penn for Best Actor in Milk, though shockingly Eastwood was completely left off the list this year. Surprisingly Revolutionary Road, which seemed to have everything going for it, was also shut out of every major category. Instead Kate Winslet’s other darling project The Reader got all the glory and stole the last spot in the Best Picture category. Mickey Rourke, whose career had been written off long ago, got his first nomination ever for portraying an aging wrestler trying for one last shot at fame in The Wrestler and (un)surprisingly, depending on who you are, The Dark Knight was excluded from Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, but got nods in all the “who cares” technical categories. It doesn’t make up for it, Academy.

Here are my predictions for this year’s 81st Academy Awards.

Best Picture

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire

This low-budget, indie movie about a teen from Mumbai who goes on the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire to win the girl of his dreams has swept the audience off its feet and won over the critics as well, which is a rare thing nowadays. Fresh off its Golden Globe and SAG wins, it’s almost a sure shot for Oscar gold. It’s a mix of classic Hollywood narrative with just a hint of Bollywood to make it wholly original, engaging and charming. Slumdog Millionaire is essentially an eastern fairytale of searching for lost love, and as such a feel-good ending that it will have you believing in happily ever after again.

Might have edge: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

If the Academy wants to play by the cards, they’ll give the Oscar to Benjamin Button. It has an award winning cast led by Cate Blanchett and Brad Pitt, both at the top of their game, and superb direction from David Fincher (nominated for Best Director). Button is a whimsical tale of a man born old, who grows younger and to finally die an infant, adapted from Scott F. Fitzgerald’s short story. It’s a three hour long beautiful, melancholic epic of life, love and death, and the moments in between. Both Slumdog and Button have the same resonating story of searching for lost love. But one thing that can hurt its chances is its unseemly comparisons to previous Oscar winner - Forrest Gump.

Who got snubbed: The Dark Knight

It had everything going for it: an excellent ensemble cast with respected, veteran actors, a smart, finely-tuned script, a film noir-ish cinematography and complex themes of heroism and the duality of good and evil, yet it had two things going against it; first it was a summer tent-pole, comic book movie. The Academy rarely looks past the action/superhero genre to see beyond the special effects and explosions. Secondly, its bleak, murky conclusion and subtle anti-government/political slant may have turned away some of the voters as well.