Oscar Picks 2009: The deserving and the less so part 2

Following my pick of the Best Picture earlier today here are my picks for Best Actor and Best Actress. Stay tuned for my coverage on Best Supporting Actor and Actress.

Best Actor

Prediction: Mickey Rourke

This is the perfect Hollywood redemption story. People in the industry had written off Mickey Rourke’s film career long ago and then came his intense, rousing performance as Randy “The Ram” Robinson, an aging, injured wrestler trying to get back in the game in the aptly named The Wrestler. The Academy loves a good redemption story that parallels an actor’s real life. Rourke really embodied the struggle and loneliness a man 20 years past his prime, disconnected with his life outside the ring. Rourke won the Golden Globe this year but lost to Sean Penn at the SAG awards, which may give Penn the edge.

Might have edge: Sean Penn

The Academy’s critical darling just won the SAG award for Best Actor the other night and Penn may have the edge if the sting of the passing of Proposition 8 is still felt by the Academy voters. For once, Penn didn’t chew the scenery like he did in his other charismatic politician movie All the King’s Men. Penn's turn as California's first openly gay elected official, Harvey Milk, has all the stuff voters go for -- a straight actor playing a gay role, a real-life drama and a tragic ending. Penn disappears into the role in a thrilling performance, strikingly different from anything he's ever done.

Who got snubbed: Leonardo DiCaprio

He should have gotten the nod for his role as depressed suburban husband Frank Wheeler in Revolutionary Road instead of Richard Jenkins for The Visitor. The success of the movie resides in the power-house performance of DiCaprio. Many critics have called it his best performance to date yet come Oscar time they left him off the list and Revolutionary Road was shut out of all categories as well.

Best Actress

Prediction and might have edge: Kate Winslet

This category has tough competition with very deserving, multi-nominated women. This year there comes a little controversy about Kate Winslet who is nominated for The Reader for Best Actress yet won for the same film at the Golden Globes and SAG awards in the Supporting Actress category, confused? So where critics. Winslet is the bridesmaid of the Oscars, never the bride. She’s a five time Oscar loser and this year is the year the Academy will reward her and give her due and she deserves it.

Who got snubbed: Sally Hawkins

She won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy at this year’s Golden Globe but got left off the list of nominees for the Oscars only because the Academy doesn’t favour comedic performances as much as dramatic ones. But Hawkins' performance as the sunny protagonist in Happy Go Lucky was likable, warm and natural. Seeing her crack a huge, toothy smile in the face of pain (both physical and emotional), violence and sadness embodied the sort of reassuring optimism we could all use more of these days.