Oscar Picks 2009: The deserving and the less so part 3

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction and might have edge: Heath Ledger

With the Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice Award, AFI and SAG awards snatched, he has all but the Oscar locked up. Not since Peter Fincher, who won for his work in Network, as a late actor won a posthumous Oscar. He obliterated Jack Nicholson’s Joker in the first six minute of the prologue and The Academy should recognize his immense talent in this year’s biggest box office hit and second highest grossing film of all time, if only because they ignored his quietly intense Innis del Mar in Brokeback Mountain. Here’s to Michelle Williams and their daughter Mathilda accepting his award on February 22.

Who got snubbed: James Franco

Sean Penn and Josh Brolin both got nods this year for their turns as Harvey Milk and opposing politician Dan White respectively, yet Franco got snubbed in the Best Supporting Actor category. Franco, who plays boyfriend to gay politician Harvey Milk, is warmly funny, touching and quiet, rather letting the other actors shine. Yet it's him with that beautiful, disharming smile that our hearts go to.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Penelope Cruz

Since Kate Winslet is not competing in the category this year, it’s the closest and tightest race for Best Supporting Actress to date. As far as it goes, The Academy could hand it out to any one of these fine ladies but ultimately they’ll hand it to Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. As Maria Elena, Juan Antonio’s unstable former wife, Cruz is a fireball full of emotions. She smoulders on screen, all wild and erotic, and extremely funny going from Spanish to English trading one-liners with Javier Bardem. Having been denied an Oscar for Revolver, she deserves to win this time.

Might have edge: Marisa Tomei

Marisa Tomei, like Mickey Rourke, is having somewhat of a career renaissance, with well-received roles in last year's Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and this year’s The Wrestler where she plays a down and out stripper who befriends Randy. The two are very much alike, both working in an industry where body image and performance are everything and gets tougher as they get older. She is superb and brings a subtle warmth to the emotionally-hardened Cassidy. For that she deserves an Oscar win.

Who got snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt

With all the critical praise showered on Anne Hathaway's fearless performance in Rachel Getting Married, it seems The Academy forgot there were other actresses in the film. Rosemarie DeWitt is so good as Hathaway's sympathetic older sister. Here, DeWitt manages to capture both sibling rivalry and sisterly compassion, petty jealousy and rough-hewn forgiveness for Hathaway's unstable, junkie Kym. But in a competitive field this year she was left out of consideration and that's too bad.