Oscar Picks 2009: The deserving and the less so part 3

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction and might have edge: Heath Ledger

With the Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice Award, AFI and SAG awards snatched, he has all but the Oscar locked up. Not since Peter Fincher, who won for his work in Network, as a late actor won a posthumous Oscar. He obliterated Jack Nicholson’s Joker in the first six minute of the prologue and The Academy should recognize his immense talent in this year’s biggest box office hit and second highest grossing film of all time, if only because they ignored his quietly intense Innis del Mar in Brokeback Mountain. Here’s to Michelle Williams and their daughter Mathilda accepting his award on February 22.

Who got snubbed: James Franco

Sean Penn and Josh Brolin both got nods this year for their turns as Harvey Milk and opposing politician Dan White respectively, yet Franco got snubbed in the Best Supporting Actor category. Franco, who plays boyfriend to gay politician Harvey Milk, is warmly funny, touching and quiet, rather letting the other actors shine. Yet it's him with that beautiful, disharming smile that our hearts go to.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Penelope Cruz

Since Kate Winslet is not competing in the category this year, it’s the closest and tightest race for Best Supporting Actress to date. As far as it goes, The Academy could hand it out to any one of these fine ladies but ultimately they’ll hand it to Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. As Maria Elena, Juan Antonio’s unstable former wife, Cruz is a fireball full of emotions. She smoulders on screen, all wild and erotic, and extremely funny going from Spanish to English trading one-liners with Javier Bardem. Having been denied an Oscar for Revolver, she deserves to win this time.

Might have edge: Marisa Tomei

Marisa Tomei, like Mickey Rourke, is having somewhat of a career renaissance, with well-received roles in last year's Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and this year’s The Wrestler where she plays a down and out stripper who befriends Randy. The two are very much alike, both working in an industry where body image and performance are everything and gets tougher as they get older. She is superb and brings a subtle warmth to the emotionally-hardened Cassidy. For that she deserves an Oscar win.

Who got snubbed: Rosemarie DeWitt

With all the critical praise showered on Anne Hathaway's fearless performance in Rachel Getting Married, it seems The Academy forgot there were other actresses in the film. Rosemarie DeWitt is so good as Hathaway's sympathetic older sister. Here, DeWitt manages to capture both sibling rivalry and sisterly compassion, petty jealousy and rough-hewn forgiveness for Hathaway's unstable, junkie Kym. But in a competitive field this year she was left out of consideration and that's too bad.

Oscar Picks 2009: The deserving and the less so part 2

Following my pick of the Best Picture earlier today here are my picks for Best Actor and Best Actress. Stay tuned for my coverage on Best Supporting Actor and Actress.

Best Actor

Prediction: Mickey Rourke

This is the perfect Hollywood redemption story. People in the industry had written off Mickey Rourke’s film career long ago and then came his intense, rousing performance as Randy “The Ram” Robinson, an aging, injured wrestler trying to get back in the game in the aptly named The Wrestler. The Academy loves a good redemption story that parallels an actor’s real life. Rourke really embodied the struggle and loneliness a man 20 years past his prime, disconnected with his life outside the ring. Rourke won the Golden Globe this year but lost to Sean Penn at the SAG awards, which may give Penn the edge.

Might have edge: Sean Penn

The Academy’s critical darling just won the SAG award for Best Actor the other night and Penn may have the edge if the sting of the passing of Proposition 8 is still felt by the Academy voters. For once, Penn didn’t chew the scenery like he did in his other charismatic politician movie All the King’s Men. Penn's turn as California's first openly gay elected official, Harvey Milk, has all the stuff voters go for -- a straight actor playing a gay role, a real-life drama and a tragic ending. Penn disappears into the role in a thrilling performance, strikingly different from anything he's ever done.

Who got snubbed: Leonardo DiCaprio

He should have gotten the nod for his role as depressed suburban husband Frank Wheeler in Revolutionary Road instead of Richard Jenkins for The Visitor. The success of the movie resides in the power-house performance of DiCaprio. Many critics have called it his best performance to date yet come Oscar time they left him off the list and Revolutionary Road was shut out of all categories as well.

Best Actress

Prediction and might have edge: Kate Winslet

This category has tough competition with very deserving, multi-nominated women. This year there comes a little controversy about Kate Winslet who is nominated for The Reader for Best Actress yet won for the same film at the Golden Globes and SAG awards in the Supporting Actress category, confused? So where critics. Winslet is the bridesmaid of the Oscars, never the bride. She’s a five time Oscar loser and this year is the year the Academy will reward her and give her due and she deserves it.

Who got snubbed: Sally Hawkins

She won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy at this year’s Golden Globe but got left off the list of nominees for the Oscars only because the Academy doesn’t favour comedic performances as much as dramatic ones. But Hawkins' performance as the sunny protagonist in Happy Go Lucky was likable, warm and natural. Seeing her crack a huge, toothy smile in the face of pain (both physical and emotional), violence and sadness embodied the sort of reassuring optimism we could all use more of these days.

Oscar Picks 2009: The deserving and the less so

Every year the list of Oscar nominees is full of obvious, sure choices (Meryl Streep, Sean Penn, Clint Eastwood), a few eyebrow raisers (Crash for Best Picture really? ) and snubs and upsets so frustrating that fans have cried foul and done some snubbing of their own (Jimmy Stewart never winning for Vertigo, Pulp Fiction losing to Forest Gump).

This year’s list was more of the same.

We got Meryl Streep battling it out for Best Actress in Doubt, Sean Penn for Best Actor in Milk, though shockingly Eastwood was completely left off the list this year. Surprisingly Revolutionary Road, which seemed to have everything going for it, was also shut out of every major category. Instead Kate Winslet’s other darling project The Reader got all the glory and stole the last spot in the Best Picture category. Mickey Rourke, whose career had been written off long ago, got his first nomination ever for portraying an aging wrestler trying for one last shot at fame in The Wrestler and (un)surprisingly, depending on who you are, The Dark Knight was excluded from Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, but got nods in all the “who cares” technical categories. It doesn’t make up for it, Academy.

Here are my predictions for this year’s 81st Academy Awards.

Best Picture

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire

This low-budget, indie movie about a teen from Mumbai who goes on the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire to win the girl of his dreams has swept the audience off its feet and won over the critics as well, which is a rare thing nowadays. Fresh off its Golden Globe and SAG wins, it’s almost a sure shot for Oscar gold. It’s a mix of classic Hollywood narrative with just a hint of Bollywood to make it wholly original, engaging and charming. Slumdog Millionaire is essentially an eastern fairytale of searching for lost love, and as such a feel-good ending that it will have you believing in happily ever after again.

Might have edge: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

If the Academy wants to play by the cards, they’ll give the Oscar to Benjamin Button. It has an award winning cast led by Cate Blanchett and Brad Pitt, both at the top of their game, and superb direction from David Fincher (nominated for Best Director). Button is a whimsical tale of a man born old, who grows younger and to finally die an infant, adapted from Scott F. Fitzgerald’s short story. It’s a three hour long beautiful, melancholic epic of life, love and death, and the moments in between. Both Slumdog and Button have the same resonating story of searching for lost love. But one thing that can hurt its chances is its unseemly comparisons to previous Oscar winner - Forrest Gump.

Who got snubbed: The Dark Knight

It had everything going for it: an excellent ensemble cast with respected, veteran actors, a smart, finely-tuned script, a film noir-ish cinematography and complex themes of heroism and the duality of good and evil, yet it had two things going against it; first it was a summer tent-pole, comic book movie. The Academy rarely looks past the action/superhero genre to see beyond the special effects and explosions. Secondly, its bleak, murky conclusion and subtle anti-government/political slant may have turned away some of the voters as well.